Eight postulates of future forecast
Eight postulates of forecasting future with explanations
1) Future can be predicted but varies in the certainty, according to the level of awareness about the cause of it.
(All of us know what is going to happen around us either intuitively or through cognition. We are sure of the occurrence of an event with a probability of 1% to 100% — not 0 as it means the 100% of non-occurrence.
Our awareness of the future is limited by the capacities of our senses. For instance, imagine a car with a flat tyre at high speed that is going to hit the median on the road in the few seconds. As an observer, we can see it happening from a visible distance.
If we don’t know future, it is because we are not aware of it through our senses.)
2) Future prediction can be done through decipher of existing and historical patterns.
(Future is change of position — of matter, energy and intelligence. If the observer, the observed and the overall environment of situation remains the same, and then there is no future.
Further, change of position is based on the principle of cause and effect in which cause is in the past or present and effect is in the future. The more accurate we know about the cause; more accurate will be our prediction of effect.)
3) Future prediction holds well as long as the fundamentals of life remain.
(Fundamental of life is bounded by our way of living — culture, economy, governance, beliefs, planetary positions and the existence of other living and non-living beings. ‘Our’ includes the entire humanity)
4) At least one entity, knows the 100% probability of a specific future event.
(An observer closest to the cause or the producer of the cause knows the occurrence of the effect.)
5) The more accurate pattern recognition is, the more accurate future prediction is.
(To predict a specific event, look for similar events in the past and the conditions under which that event occurred. What are the chances for the replication of the similar event? This is a method to predict.
For instance, what are the causes for WWI? How are they similar to WWII? Under what conditions may WWIII happen?)
6) Future stretches from past and present. Therefore, starting a prediction from the current state may not always yield the right forecast.
(In order to predict future event, one may have to go a little backwards into the past. For instance, in order to predict the future of AI, one must look at the origins of AI in the past and not necessarily, start from the present work.)
7) Future is a state and not a timeline.
(To derive from the explanation for point. 2, future is change of position of matter, energy and intelligence.)
8) Social innovation is a state in the future.
(Social innovation is change in the daily lives of a society. It could be eating habits, nature of work and production, entertainment, education, governance, etc. These changes are caused by technology, beliefs, changes in the natural environment, etc. Social innovations in different aspects of life happen periodically.)
